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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 5

Detroit Lions 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP