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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 39

Detroit Lions 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP