Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 87

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Detroit Lions 17

(10:22) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to DET 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-K.Nixon.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 87, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model