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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to DET 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DET 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP