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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(:08) 65-T.Crosby reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (42-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +4.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.99 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model