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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model