4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model