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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP