Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 12

(2:57) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.49 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model