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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 74

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-M.Walker to JAX 28 for 7 yards (34-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.68 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP