Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

(14:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model