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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 44 for 9 yards (87-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model