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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model