Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to MIA 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-A.Maulet. PENALTY on NYJ-23-A.Maulet, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model