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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-30-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP