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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 26 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP