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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 83

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 26

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 26-L.Bell right guard to NYJ 25 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham; 33-J.Wiltz).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.68 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model