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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 11

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 26

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model