Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 37, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. NYJ-88-T.Montgomery was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Penalty on NYJ-88-T.Montgomery, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 94, worth -5.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model