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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 11

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP