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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 5-T.Way punts 21 yards to BUF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP