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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 15

Washington Commanders 3 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model