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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 24
Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 6
What Actually Happened
(10:58) 20-F.Gore up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (20-L.Collins).
The Three Options
GO
+2.93 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
- 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
- 17% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT
+0.46 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
