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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 46

Washington Commanders 9 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 5-T.Way punts 24 yards to BUF 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model