Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 56

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(6:19) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to BUF 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-50-T.Vallejo.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model