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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard to BAL 34 for no gain (36-C.Clark) [99-M.Judon]. FUMBLES (36-C.Clark), RECOVERED by BAL-29-E.Thomas III at BAL 30. 29-E.Thomas III to BAL 36 for 6 yards (66-T.Hopkins; 67-J.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model