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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model