4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 25 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah; 50-Jo.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.29 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model