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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 49

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.03 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model