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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 49 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to CIN 40, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model