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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 40 for 4 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model