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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model