Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

(13:28) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to CAR 45, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model