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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to GB 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP