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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 21 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model