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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to CAR 47, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model