Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 16 – Green Bay Packers 24

(6:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to GB 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model