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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 24 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to CAR 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP