Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 2 yards (82-J.Mundt). FUMBLES (82-J.Mundt), recovered by PIT-98-V.Williams at PIT 29. 98-V.Williams to PIT 29 for no gain (88-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PIT-98-V.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29.

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.64 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model