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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model