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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to LA 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 19-J.Natson to LA 16 for -2 yards (80-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model