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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model