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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to LA 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model