4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short middle intended for 25-D.Long INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Edmunds [37-J.Dangerfield] at LA 33. 33-T.Edmunds to LA 31 for 2 yards (25-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model