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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 29 yards to LA 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model