4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to LA 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-92-O.Adeniyi.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model