4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Pass formation) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 33-T.Edmunds to PIT 40 for 6 yards (58-C.Littleton, 32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model