Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(10:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PIT 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 32 for 8 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.31 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model