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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP