Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.53 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model